It depends

snp_conferenceLike most people, I suspect, I have totally given up on the entire Brexit shambles. And I’m increasingly perplexed as to why, in public at least, the First Minister persists in behaving as if there was some Brexit outcome that might have a significant bearing on the constitutional issue. Does she genuinely suppose that there might be a ‘deal’ which makes independence less necessary? Does she imagine there to be the remotest possibility of an outcome which makes it less urgent that we put an end to the Union?

What “detail” could the UK Government offer about “post-Brexit Britain” which might make it a less dire and depressing prospect? What reason is there to believe that October will bring any more clarity than has been provided to date? Has that been the trend so far? Has the Brexit process been characterised by increasing lucidity?

What might Theresa May say in October which could alter the fact that Scotland voted Remain by a substantial majority? What might she offer that could compensate for the lies, smears, insults, intimidation and empty promises by which a No vote was secured in 2014? How might she undo all the ways in which the British establishment has demonstrated its contempt for Scotland, its Parliament and its people?

What might happen between now and October which could rectify the asymmetry of power which means that Scotland’s interests can never be adequately represented within the UK? For more than three hundred years the Union has served as a device by which the people of Scotland are prevented from exercising the sovereignty which is theirs by right. Does Theresa May give the impression of being the individual who is going to change that situation in the course of a few weeks?

It now seems certain that Nicola Sturgeon has chosen not to seize the opportunity to hold a new referendum in September. It looks increasingly unlikely that it will even be this year. It appears that she has opted not to seize the initiative, but to listen instead to the siren voices around her urging that we constantly wait to see what the British government does next. Then wait some more to see what they do after that. Then put off doing anything until we see how that pans out. Then postpone a decision until…. And so it goes on.

It is a policy of self-perpetuating prevarication. Once an excuse has been found for inaction, that excuse then forms the basis for the next excuse. Before long, the burden shifts from those insisting on delay to those demanding action. When we stop asking how long we must wait for the new referendum and start asking why we shouldn’t wait even longer then the cause of independence is becalmed, if not sunk.

Nicola Sturgeon has spoken the words I dreaded to hear. When asked about plans for a second referendum she says only that ‘it depends’. What is troubling is that it appears to depend on all the wrong things. It depends on what the British government does, rather than what Scotland needs. The First Minister seems to be relying on the Brexit process creating the circumstances for a new referendum. She seems to have lost sight of the fact that those circumstances already exist. They have existed for a very long time. They are the reason her party was formed. They are the reason she’s where she is.


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56 thoughts on “It depends

  1. My suspicion is that the First Minister is letting the head dictate rather than to be guided by the heart.

    The heart is with you, me and many: looking at the decades of disrespect, neglect and theft, we are sanguine and eager to free ourselves *now*.

    The head says we can’t cross the line before a substantial majority feels the same.

    Before that happens, we need more people to feel the squeeze, Undoubtedly, the longer Scotland is downtrodden by the BritNazi Establishment, the louder the cries for Independence and the better the chances to achieve it, possibly to the point that the BritNazi will have pushed it too far and the situation will have degraded so blatantly and dramatically that a referendum will no longer be necessary.

    A cruel and risky plot, but a lucid strategy.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. @Corrado Mella

      I sm curious as to what you see are the current drivers for triggering dissolving the Union? It can’t just be waiting for the majority? That would mean the risks to Scotland are no different to 2014.

      I can not believe Scottish YES supporters are not shitting themselves. Westminster this time appears to be gunning for your Sovereignty and YES are almost out of time…if it is not already too late.

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      1. A dramatic event like a unilateral dissolution of the union requires that a sizeable percentage of Scots is happy with or indifferent to the change, not to risk significant opposition and obstruction on the ground.
        The key players will be those that have no position, no opposition and are not negatively impacted by the change.
        Remember that in 2014 “only” 84.6% of those registered to vote did so. 15.4% were indifferent. Put them in the “indifferent / OK with status quo” count, add the Yes, and unionists are already in a minority, and declining.
        We know a non-binding referendum can be taken as an explicit mandate and bear significant consequences even on a narrow margin: a dramatic cut decided by a Government with an implicit mandate – like the current SNP/ScotGreens in Holyrood – needs more popular support to be safe and lasting.

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      2. Totally agree with you, if we can’t win Independence now we never will, Alex Salmond called the referendum when the polls were at 29% for yes, we would be starting now at 50%, I am beginning to think that Scottish government would be happy with more powers and i expect if no Indyref is called before next election they will lose even more seats, I firmly believe if it is not at least called for before end of October we can say goodbye to Independence

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    2. @Corrado Mella

      (In response to your last post below)

      Its interesting that your last comment doesn’t mention any of the new risks to Scotland. As such, your comment in many ways appears still mired in the simpler time of 2014 Indyref.

      Yes, dissolving the Union is a dramatic event…but I would argue not as risky or dramatic as what happens if you lose your sovereignty…if that happens Scotland becomes forever trapped weather it likes it or not. This is no longer like 2014 where things will probably remain just as they were while you wait for some day that may never arrive (as there is nothing to focus the minds of people).

      Political events are afoot that mean you don’t have the luxury of waiting for it to fall in your lap. You have to make that majority yourself and have confidence in your position that Scotland (like every country) has the sovereign right to decide its own future…and that future is no longer served by tying yourself to a isolationist and angry England. This is what campaigns are for – to marshal supporters and convince those who don’t pay attention.

      For me, the issue Peter raises in the article is that YES needs momentum and urgency. Its hard to debate in a vacuum and this is where signals from the First Minister can focus minds and coalesce the strands of the YES movement to influence the wider public in the continued MSM SNP badism.

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  2. If you think I’m following my heart then you could hardly be more wrong. It’s my head that tells me it’s wrong to treat delay as a consequence-free option. I note that, in what has become a well-established trait among those advocating indefinite postponement of the referendum in the hope of the ‘right time’ emerging, you completely fail to address the matter of how you propose to deal with the measures that the British state will surely take to make a new referendum impossible and/or unwinnable.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Your aim is a new referendum, Peter.
      A referendum we could be robbed again with.
      Remember the BritNazi Establishment cannot survive without Scottish resources.
      They cannot countenance losing them, England would be on fire in a week.
      No food, no electricity, no water, no gas – you are the Government. What do you do?

      My aim is Scottish Independence, whichever way it comes, AND safeguarding all other UK nations’ people.

      An early election for Holyrood with a mandate to declare Independence on day one is an alternative way.
      Mass civil disobedience is another.
      Heaven forbid, a popular revolt or a military coup another.

      Don’t exclude other scenarios.

      I am as impatient as you all are. I’m the one (EU Citizen) that could lose the right to vote.
      A referendum before Brexit cuts me out is a must.

      But in absence, I’m open to a Plan B, C, D, up to Z.

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      1. An early election is not an option. Fixed term parliaments.

        The Scottish Government already has a referendum.

        EU nationals will lose the right to vote in any referendum long before Brexit. Also 16 and 17 year olds. Powers over the franchise etc. will be taken from the Scottish Parliament and given to the ‘UK Government in Scotland’. This could happen as early as October 2018.

        Properly organised mass civil disobedience is certainly an option I’d be prepared to contemplate. I draw the line at any kind of violence. But that becomes all but inevitable when established power closes down the democratic route to change.

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      2. Doesn’t also Westminster have a fixed term parliament? Yes, it has.
        If it’s good for the goose, it’s good for the gander.

        Yes, the SG has a mandate for a referendum. Could be non-binding, consulting and not requiring a Section 30 order.

        There are so many ways to reach our objective: I’m open to and ready for all of them.

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  3. This idea that we need the real Brexit pain before we go for indy ref 2 is wrong on two counts.

    Firstly the moral obligation is to protect the country that you are first minister of. That means not allowing harm to come to it’s citizens. So the moral obligation is to use the mandate to try and prevent the inevitable Brexit Omni shambles. You do not sit back and allow the damage to occur and then try and put a sticking plaster over it.

    Secondly there is no guarantee the people who are suffering financially will automatically assume that independence will resolve this. They might actually shy away from making any other big decisions in their life’s. It may end up putting people off independence, we just don’t know.

    The smart move is to be pro-active , rather than reactive. You take away the tinder before the match can be lit. I can say with absolute certainty that there are now two Brexit outcomes. A hard Brexit with no free movement, Irish hard border and no single market. The other is a no deal crash and burn.

    Both are red lines and unacceptable to what Scotland voted for. So you are correct Peter. What are we waiting any longer for. Time is precious here , but passing time allows the Tories to spin this out until it’s too late.

    The SNP are being played for time , but they just don’t seem to understand this. Like you I am totally frustrated with waiting on your enemy making the moves ever inward towards our trenches.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. I hate war and violence but the best way I feel that I can describe the current situation with the timing of the referendum is to the start of a battle. We are lined up and the enemy is charging towards us. “Hold your fire,” we are told. “Hold .. hold .. hold. ..”

    There is an optimal time for “Fire!”. Do so too soon or too late and we are overwhelmed. I fear that we are fast approaching “too late” and may not only lose this battle but the entire war.

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    1. The “optimal time” cannot be foreseen. It can only be recognised with hindsight. We can know what was the “optimal time”. But only when it’s passed. When it’s too late.

      The solution is to pick a time and work to make it “optimal”.

      The right time for a referendum cannot be something which simply emerges from conditions being created by forces which are vehemently opposed to a referendum at any time. The right time must be something which is created by those committed to defending Scotland’s right of self-determination.

      We have to seize control of the process.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Yes, I agree with that, Peter. However, we are ready but, unfortunately, we are not able to shout “Fire!”; that is out of our hands.

        How do we seize control?

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      2. When I talk about seizing control, I mean as a nation. It just seem ludicrous to me that some people claim to want independence while insisting that we abide by a process determined by those whose imperative is to prevent a referendum. We will not achieve independence by complying with rules and adhering to procedures designed to protect the Union. We have to break those rules. We have to adopt our own procedures.

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  5. What will change before October? Absolutely nothing.

    But until a “deal” is presented to EU27 for ratification the Establishment could say or do anything. If we go too soon they will say “Ah but, we were about to agree X”

    Once the deal is presented to EU27 for ratification, we in Scotland can decide to ratify (or not) too.

    That is basically what Nicola said all those months ago. I haven’t heard her change that. Have you?

    From my point of view Nicola is giving Mrs May every opportunity to say she will listen to what Scotland needs. In asking for a Plan B she is taking the same steps BT did in 2014. If it was good enough for them it is good enough for Scotland 🙂 Nobody can rightfully criticise because it has been tried and tested by BT in 2014.

    The EU27 need time to ratify any deal so it must be presented before the end of the year. Even at that they will be short of time. While there is still a (very distant) possibility that common sense will prevail and a suitable agreement can be reached the few percent of No to Yes voters we need will not be convinced. They are not there yet.

    But I am ready to step unto the breech the minute Nicola needs me to. That will not be until at least October, possibly November.

    Let’s just make sure we are ready when needed.

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      1. Peter, I beg to differ.
        What is becoming very tedious is the constant cries for action NOW!
        I don’t doubt that the Establishment are trying to get all their ducks in a row to thwart these terrible Nats and their Independence nonsense. Of course they are. I don’t think anyone doubts that. But so are ScotGov.

        There is one scenario that is guaranteed to result in failure, and that is to fire the starting gun too soon.

        You are correct there is never going to be a right time. But there are certainly wrong times, and before enough of a deal is known for the EU27 to ratify is definitely the wrong time. The Tory government have not yet pulled enough of the rope to hang themselves. Just leave them to take a bit more.

        Every man and his dog knows that the cabinet members are at war. They are not finished with their destruction. The Tory government that will implement whatever deal is or is not in place is not the one we have just now. They still have a little bit of self damage to complete before those “just about convinced”-No-to-Yes voters are persuaded to vote Yes. They are the ones we need to concentrate on. Not those who have been Yes all their lives, or since 2014, 2016 or even this year. The ones we still need to persuade have to see the “Deal” and the cabinet ministers who will implement it. All of that won’t be possible until EU27 are in the ratification process. I suspect you know that already.

        A short-as-possible campaign can be achieved. As long as Independence has been ratified by the Scottish People (whatever way is most appropriate) by midnight on 29th March, Brussels time, 2019, a very quick continuing EU membership can be agreed while negotiations are carried out with EU27. Full EU membership may not be the best deal for Scotland, but as long as we can continue with CU and SM while we negotiate a future relationship.

        Meanwhile, you might not agree with my position (you almost certainly won’t) but that does not give you permission to mock or insult my position. “Another one advocating delay…” is not the greeting a new poster should be experiencing. You have done your own position harm by your replies this afternoon.

        If all you want is an Echo Chamber where your “we need action NOW” is the only thing heard then continue as you are. If you want to persuade people from No to Yes then I humbly suggest a new tack might prove more beneficial.

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      2. Still not a word about dealing with the consequences of delay. Just the shallow thinking and tunnel vision that sees only “one scenario that is guaranteed to result in failure”. Less intellectually stunted individuals can see at least one other. And that is delaying while the British establishment takes steps to ensure that a new referendum is impossible or unwinnable or both.

        It is YOU who wants an echo chamber. All the ‘Postponers’ I’ve encountered have an intolerance for anyone who questions their policy of prevarication. As you have amply demonstrated.

        If you want to persuade people to wait for some ‘optimal time; to magically emerge, you better start demonstrating that you’ve at least tried to think it through.

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  6. Peter you are spot on as always. There is no optimal time. For all we know last month might have been the optimal time , or next month. What we do know is that morally, politically and economically Scotland is in peril.

    Do we dither like the captain on the Titanic, to see how bad it is, or do we man the lifeboats as soon as possible. I know one thing. Time and tide wait for no man. Events don’t lead you to your destination, that’s called fantasy. You steer yourself and your people to their destination and in the manner of your choosing not your enemies.

    I hope someone is listening!

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Jill – You are correct logically , but you are missing the point.

    The longer we wait the more damage can be done. The longer we wait the less chance there is to get out on time. We might not even know there will be a no deal until early February 19. How do we arrange a referendum in a few weeks. The current way things are going it will be early December before anything is informally agreed.

    Remember the Brexit vote was 2 years and 2 months ago. By December it will have been 2 and a half years. Nicola has a mandate for a referendum secured in parliament. She is playing into the Tories hands by allowing their fantasy timetable to dictate her referendum plans.

    We are being led down a merry path to a cliff edge Brexit. You can’t have a referendum in the winter , it’s not practical. We have October and March to use now. It must be one of those months.

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    1. As I have just said above, there will indeed never be the RIGHT Time, but there sure as Hell is a wrong time. Before EU27 have a deal to ratify is the wrong time.

      If that is delayed much longer then that in itself is more evidence of how bad the situation will be.

      There is, as yet, not enough evidence of future damage to convince those we need to convince.

      But it is coming.

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  8. The word I heard the First Minister use after her meeting with Theresa May was ‘OCTOBER’.

    IE when the details of Brexit have become clear, but before it is too late for Scotland to do anything about it.
    As she said in March last year with her speech from Bute House.

    If the firing gun for indyref#2 has not been fired by the end of October this year then by all means put on that pettit lip and jump up and down kicking the ground in a toddler tantrum.

    Me? I’m watching ducks being lined up in a row ready to be shot down when it’s the time.
    Let’s see!
    Btw I am not and have never at any time been a member of the SNP.

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    1. Another dullard who imagines the British establishment is just sitting there doing nothing about locking Scotland into the Union. So naive! They’re actually telling us what they’re going to do. They’re even showing us what they intend. And still the terminally gullible suppose it’ll all be OK in the end.

      It ill behoves any independence supporter to talk about childish behaviour when their proudest boast is that they’ve never joined the only party which is unequivocally and unconditionally committed to independence. The de facto political arm of the Yes movement. The only party which can provide the effective political power which is crucial to the independence project.

      Grow the fuck up!

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      1. How to win friends and influence people- NOT

        You obviously want the Echo Chamber repeating that your view is always right and others are always wrong.

        I thought it was only certain Unionists who were so single minded that they couldn’t respond negatively without insults or abuse.

        Your comments have done the YES campaign a disservice, Most of us are perfectly capable of debating without resorting to insults and abuse. It seems you might not have that ability.

        You are not helping the Independence campaign at all.

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      2. Totally evading the point and trying to close down discussion with the tired old crap about “not helping the independence campaign”. Get back to me when you have something meaningful to say about dealing with the consequences of delay.

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      3. “Totally evading the point and trying to close down discussion with the tired old crap about “not helping the independence campaign”. Get back to me when you have something meaningful to say about dealing with the consequences of delay.”

        Far be it from me to bring the conversation down to the lowest denominator but…

        Why is it that some men do not have the control to prevent themselves from reacting far too prematurely?

        Why do they always think they know best?

        Sometimes taking a little bit longer actually pays dividends. Maybe you could try it sometime.

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      4. I think I’ll just let that one lie there and fester in its own puerile sexism. Might as well. You’re obviously not capable of addressing the point. If you were smart or honest you might admit that you’ve never even thought about the consequences of indefinitely delaying the referendum. Evidently, you’re neither.

        EDIT – I’ll add this by way of a wake-up call for those naive enough to remain oblivious to what the British government intends, and is already doing.

        ON TUESDAY 12TH JUNE 2018 WESTMINSTER VOTED TO STRIP THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT OF POWERS DEVOLVED TO IT IN 1997, AND VOTED FOR BY OF SCOTS, INCLUDING –

        Farming, and GM Crops [currently banned by Scotland]
        Animal Health & Traceability, and Food and Feed Safety and Hygiene Law [including banned growth hormones]
        Fishing Sustainability & Quotas [including CFPI
        Food Safety & Hygiene and Food Minimum Standards [Huge impacts on mult-£BiIIions Scotland Brand]
        Hazardous Substances Planning [including Fracking, currently blocked by Scotland, & Nuclear Waste, opposed by Scotland]
        Rail Franchising [including Rail Nationalisation]

        Anybody who imagines that’s the end of the power-grab is an idiot. Anybody who agitates to give the British government time to strip further powers from the Scottish Parliament is a dangerous idiot.

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      5. How arrogant are you trying to be?

        Where did you get the impression that you, the great Peter Bell, have a better understanding of the need for independence than anyone else, let alone a mere female?

        I can assure you I understood the need before you did. And I have never needed to resort to insults to make my case. I may have become very frustrated and erred slightly on the sarcastic but I am unaware of ever having sworn at anyone, even once, let alone repeatedly. The same cannot be said about you.

        The dangers of premature action are much greater than being patient enough to wait until the EU27 are ready to ratify. The likelihood of a successful campaign if triggered too soon are almost zero. Those who are still to be convinced will simply hear the establishment say “But we were about to do X” and the whole campaign is lost.

        And THAT damage will put the Independence cause back far too long for me. If we don’t get it this time, when we will have an almost open goal I will not live long enough to see the next chance. If we get it wrong this time the game is up.

        So, despite your protestations and insistence that you know best, I will continue to push for just a bit more patience. The optimum time is very close, but just not yet near enough.

        If you haven’t got the stamina, control or patience to wait until “Between Autumn 2018 and March 2019, when EU27 are able to ratify the deal” then that is your problem. That is always the timescale Nicola has given. I haven’t heard her change from that, despite what MSM might have tried to have us believe.

        And please don’t ever forget that the only way Scotland will gain independence from Westminster rule is through the only party that has the support and legal ability to deliver. That party has come so far since September 2014. I also suspect that the leader of that party is more aware of what is needed than any independence blogger. She, after all, had been elected to her position and is respected worldwide. She has the ear of many influential people.

        I expect the campaign to be much nastier than 2013/14. Therefor the shorter it is the better. Autumn will be here very soon.

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      6. It is like people have not been looking at what Westminster has actually been doing….Sure, on the surface it looks like an incompetent Brexit operation by a government out of its depth…Instead Westminster is actually passing a frightening Armada of Legislation for control.

        “Crush the Saboteurs”…They meant you Scotland and all signs are that Westminster plan to deliver on that. .

        If you expect an outcome but it doesn’t match what you are seeing look at what they are really doing.

        Ports = NO
        Irish boarder = NO
        Trade negotiation = NO
        Citizens’ Rights = NO
        Gibraltar = NO

        * Killing Devolution = YES
        * Henry VIII powers = YES
        * Erasing Scotland the brand = YES
        * Expanding Westminster’s “Scotland Office” bureaucrats – over 3000 staff and counting = YES
        * Arming the police = YES
        * Removing MSP’s access to Westminster departments = YES
        * Attacking Scotland’s rights contained in the Act of Union = YES

        I am curious…for those advocating waiting: what do they think Westminster is planning to use those powers for? Heck, Westminster is even taking on the Good Friday agreement and the EU (Ireland) has way more clout than Scotland. For those claiming they need to see the Brexit deal before they move, that legislative armada is the key of the deal as it affects Scotland and you have already seen it.

        Brexit is the equivalent of Westminster’s “Death Star” that they are about to unleash on the UK.

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  9. Gordon- Again I agree with your logic.

    However what Nicola actually stated when she announced the possibility of indy ref 2 was:

    “a second referendum on Scottish independence will be called between autumn 2018 and the spring of 2019. (March 17)”

    She didn’t say she will think about the referendum in October, as in look at when to have it. She said it needed to be Autumn 18 or Spring 19. October review means there cannot be a referendum in the autumn 18. That boat has sailed it will be gone by October. So Peter is right she has missed her own deadline. The review was supposed to be Summer 18 and then a decision to have it in the autumn would possibly have followed.

    She hasn’t missed the March 19 deadline, but if she doesn’t announce the referendum in October she will. Indeed the Tories and the EU have suggested that it could be late November before anything concrete is nailed on Brexit. Will Nicola then say she will review in December.

    The point is the goalposts keep moving on this and it is prevarication

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Peter – There are so many wait and see people out there. Always imagining that they are correct and that people like you and I are wrong. I am a life long member of the SNP and I am worried that we are feart of taking this pathetic Westminster government on. We should be destroying them , but we are not . Why is that?

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  11. I am at a loss to explain it. The SNP has the talent and the resources to take the fight to the British establishment. Especially when they get the backing of the Yes movement – as they surely will when battle is engaged. The insidious voices of the hyper-cautious seem to be exerting undue influence. Which is all the more reason for others to be encouraging some sense of urgency.

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    1. I’m already thinking we’re beyond the stage where we should be asking for a section 30 order. Westminster cannot have a veto on our right of self-determination. So why ask for permission? Doing so only seems to affirm their asserted supremacy.

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  12. I don’t want to wait either, but guarantee as soon as she talks about announcing it, the establishment will take actuon, just like the last time with announcing another general election or a change of plan.

    A part of me wonders if there is any point in having a vote as they’ll just cheat again – #toryDarkMoney, Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, Twitter etc… But then, what other options are there apart from UDI? There is not enough time for the Electoral Commision to be reformed.

    Whatever we need to do, it needs to be soon.

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    1. Whatever route we take, we eventually come to a point where we are up against the rules that the British state creates to protect itself. We will eventually have to confront those rules – and break them.

      Why wait? That is the crucial point. Why not go straight to it? All the rest is just political dancing. And we don’t have time to dance.

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    1. The concept of UDI is not applicable. Scotland is neither a colony nor a possession. We are party to a treaty. We are partners in a political union. We can chose not to be.

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  13. She calls for a binding referendum. The UK refuse . We have a consultative one. It goes to court as the UK refuse to recognise the result. The SNP resign and call an election based on independence. It can’t be boycotted and the result can’t be ignored.

    That’s where we are heading Peter. If a section 30 is requested the Tories will delay a decision to buy time or flat out refuse.

    There is a simpler way to independence. Don’t ask for a section 30. Tell WM we don’t have to have it as the people are sovereign. Will the SNP be bold enough to do this?

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    1. Requesting a section 30 order merely affirms a British state veto which cannot be legitimate. So no asking permission.

      The SNP administration resigning does not trigger an election. The Presiding Officer has 28(?) days to oversee the formation of a new administration. In the scenario you suggest, some combination of the British parties squatting in the Scottish Parliament would form a ‘Grand Alliance’ in order to ‘save the nation’. They’d call it being ‘saved’. To us, it’d feel more like being penetrated by the Wallace Monument without benefit of lubrication. If the British parties retake control of Holyrood then we are fucked in ways that have yet to be imagined by the Japanese animated porn industry.

      The ‘simple’ way is to declare the dissolution of the Union – subject to a referendum – and dare the British state to stand in the way. Make the initiative ours. Make the problem theirs. Stop asking how we’re going to do it. Start making them wonder how they’re going to stop us.

      That’s how you take back a country.

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      1. Anyone advocating forcing an election has rocks in their head. Its a huge danger.

        If the SNP lose full access to the leavers of Scottish parliament, it leaves open the door for Westminster to take opportunity of any temporary “care taker” vacuum.

        Look at Northern Island…the DUP and Westminster are in no hurry to return powers to Stormont. Why do people think May and Davidson keep having happy photo ops. What do people think the Scotland Office is planning to do with over 3000 new additional staff?

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  14. Offer this comment, Peter,(I’ll keep it short) I think it has some validity, and perhaps more importantly some purpose. Were the increased, and still increasing, and visibly increasing activity of the Yes movement to establish clear and credible evidence of a growing and significant majority (including EU citizens and 16/17 year olds) in favour of Scotland ending the Treaty, I find it hard to believe that it would not lead to a change in the timing of events. So if indeed “it depends” then it depends on us.

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  15. Scenario :
    Indy Ref #2 is called.
    GE is called or forced.
    Manifesto of any “party” – EU Ref #2.
    What happens next.

    I believe that Nicola Sturgeon knows exactly what she is doing.

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  16. I agree Peter, the Westminster cabal will have made their plans already, to think otherwise is a huge mistake. I for one see them for what they really are. Perhaps a way to sort our aims could be to do it via Scottish courts, pointing out the most devious actions of the state from the act of “Union” to present day.
    The devious ways they have made Scotland a second to England and how they project themselves as masters of all of Britain, how they act as if we are a colony not an equal partner as we contracted to be.

    So perhaps with so much evidence against their actions towards Scotland,widely available, how could they defend successfully?
    So we choose to annul the “Union” not at all “UDI” , we choose to leave because THEY have broken the agreed conditions of our Union, While we have not. It would be a totally legal parting of the ways. Which all countries in such an condition can use.

    Now is the time for them to be held responsible for what they have done to Scotland over the term of the “Union” and thereby creating the reasons for the dissolution of the ” Union” all by themselves.

    Well that is my idea of a clear and legal way to end this charade, some agree with this concept others unsure. So what about that option?

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    1. How long do you expect to be tied up in the courts? How will you prevent the erosion of Scotland’s democracy while you’re busy with legal arguments? We need decisive, effective action now. Not a process that could easily be dragged out for decades.

      Having said that, we do have to be prepared for legal challenges. But we must ensure that these legal challenges take place within the context of a process which we control. We should not be taking the British government to court. We should be forcing the British state to use the courts to try and obstruct a democratic process.

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  17. Peter I get your point about the SNP resigning, and it might not force an election. Instead there could be a grand unholy alliance of unionist morons. However they would not have the numbers to elect a first minister. This would be rejected ,and then it would be back to square one ad infinitum.

    At some point it would be established that they could not form a government. An election would be forced at that stage. Or as you see it we could end up in a Stormont situation with direct rule from WM.I am not advocating this mechanism, merely pointing out that the SNP may unwittingly end up here due to their lack of gumption.

    The sensible thing to do is call their own referendum and declare it binding. We will still have a fight on our hands , but we will have declared ourselves as sovereign.

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  18. Well Peter, I hear what you say. So in effect then, while the Scottish people are now accepted as sovereign we have to ask England’s permission to annul our contracted “Union” before we can say, after outlining the many many reasons. That we want no more to do with as the English have made it their “Union” not the equal status that was enshrined in our original documented agreement.

    So why could we not go to court and legally announce it after having given our reasons for doing so. Perhaps doing this would require no court case, going on for perhaps decades as you describe.
    I say this assuming we agree we are sovereign, and can thus speak for ourselves and do not need the permission of Westminster to do so.

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    1. Why would we “go to court”? For what purpose?

      The people of Scotland ARE sovereign. The Scottish Parliament represents the will of Scotland’s people. The Scottish Government acts in accordance with that will. That, and that alone is the foundation of Scotland’s democracy.

      The right of self-determination, as guaranteed by the Charter of the United Nations, is vested wholly in the sovereign people of Scotland, to be exercised entirely at their discretion. The Scottish Government, acting under the auspices of the Scottish Parliament, is the agency by which we exercise our sovereignty. Only the Scottish Parliament has democratic legitimacy in Scotland. Only the Scottish Government acts with the democratic consent of Scotland’s people.

      The people of Scotland have the absolute and inalienable right to choose the form of government which best serves their needs, priorities and aspirations.

      Only the people of Scotland have the rightful authority to determine and constrain the powers of the Scottish Parliament.

      When a sufficient number of us say we want to exercise our right of self=determination no power on the planet has the authority to deny us. Only the Parliament and Government that we elect is authorised to be the arbiter of what constitutes a sufficient number. Westminster does not, and cannot, have a veto over our right of self-determination.

      The Scottish Parliament speaks for the people of Scotland. When that Parliament decides that the existing political union with England must end, the Scottish Government must act on that decision. It must act to dissolve the Union, subject only to this being ratified by plebiscite.

      That’s it! No mention of Westminster or courts. Why would there be. What is described above is, in outline at least, the necessary and sufficient process by which constitutional reform is effected in Scotland. Anything else is external interference. Which is explicitly prohibited by the Charter of the United Nations.

      It is all and entirely about US. We decide! We, the people, decide! That is the beginning and the end of all democratic politics. The people are the sole source of legitimate political authority.

      We MUST rid ourselves of the mindset which has us acting only within the frame of established power. We MUST reframe our actions in terms of our own power.

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  19. Yes and we already have a parliament in session with a majority for independence. The fact that the unionists are mumping and moaning is neither here nor there. They actually represent the minority. The majority have the right to carry out the will of the Scottish people.

    Our parliament has agreed to an independence referendum!

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  20. Peter I agree with your assessment , I am sick of the denigration we are subjected to daily , IMO treeza is the one who is setting the agenda and the trap , I know Nicola and everyone else is waiting for the right time ???? , but treeza will string it out to the death to see what Nicola will do and then act accordingly , if Nicola goes now it limits treezas ability to concede to SM and CU which would cause riots down south and would break the tories
    If a ge were called Nicola could stand on a dissolution of the union ticket negating a referendum or a section 30 which we don’t need anyway , it would also have the benefit of exposing even more to the undecideds the total stupidity and disarray of the brit Nat parties
    As you have alluded to many times and I have posted on many sites WHY OH WHY are we the sovereign people of Scotland who elected OUR Scottish Government in OUR Scottish Parliament to act on the best interests of Scots , allowing being dictated to by a foreign government who asserts sovereignty over our country , we are either in a parnership of equals or wastemonster will have to provide proof of capture and capitulation

    Remember these imperialists have expertise in manipulating their colonies let’s not fall into their manipulations

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